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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v Lansdown 2 (Tue 25 Feb 2020)Match played between Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods (home) and Conall Platts (away).Match won by Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods. Result: 11-4,11-9,6-11,11-8. Starting level for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 3,751, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Conall Platts: 1,909, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Conall Platts. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods played 24% better than Conall Platts in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,831 and 3,751 without affecting his level. As Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods has played below his allowed range at 2,588, his level reduction is 9.4% before damping. On the assumption that Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods would normally have been playing at level 3,310 (based on typical behaviour), Conall Platts played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods changes to -6.6% and Conall Platts changes to +12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods becomes -3% and for Conall Platts becomes +5.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods is -2.3% and for Conall Platts is +4.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 83%, Conall Platts: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 66%, Conall Platts: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 3,662, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Conall Platts: 1,986, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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