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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Redland Capybaras v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 11 Mar 2020)Match played between Tim Hayden (home) and James 'Dribble' Woods (away).Match won by James 'Dribble' Woods. Result: 7-11,11-13,12-10,6-11. Starting level for Tim Hayden: 3,720, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for James 'Dribble' Woods: 5,110, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. James 'Dribble' Woods to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Tim Hayden. James 'Dribble' Woods won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James 'Dribble' Woods played 25% better than Tim Hayden in this match. As James 'Dribble' Woods has played below his allowed range at 4,702, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that James 'Dribble' Woods would normally have been playing at level 4,948 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Hayden played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James 'Dribble' Woods changes to -0.9% and Tim Hayden changes to +2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James 'Dribble' Woods becomes -0.6% and for Tim Hayden becomes +1.5%. Given James 'Dribble' Woods's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for James 'Dribble' Woods is -0.4% and for Tim Hayden is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James 'Dribble' Woods: 84%, Tim Hayden: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James 'Dribble' Woods: 81%, Tim Hayden: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Hayden: 3,757, level confidence: 85%. Final level for James 'Dribble' Woods: 5,081, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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