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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 8: University of Bristol Tryers v Weston 5 - Currently not Active (Thu 13 Feb 2020)Match played between Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums (home) and Dan Corbett (away).Match won by Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums. Result: 15-7,15-11,15-6:15-10,15-17,15-12,10-15,16-14:15-6,15-10,15-6:15-7,12-15,15-13,15-3:15-6,15-6,15-7. Starting level for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 853, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Dan Corbett: 693, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Dan Corbett. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums played 88% better than Dan Corbett in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums actually played at a level of 1,053 and Dan Corbett at a level of 561. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums changes to +21% and Dan Corbett changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums becomes +11.6% and for Dan Corbett becomes -9.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums is +8.7% and for Dan Corbett is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dan Corbett is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 77%, Dan Corbett: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 63%, Dan Corbett: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 926, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Dan Corbett: 659, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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