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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 12 Feb 2020)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Phil Regan (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 11-7,11-7,12-10. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 6,594, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Phil Regan: 5,027, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Phil Regan. Andy Ewings won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 46% better than Phil Regan in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Ewings actually played at a level of 6,958 and Phil Regan at a level of 4,764. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 4.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to +4.8% and Phil Regan changes to -4.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes +2.1% and for Phil Regan becomes -2.2%. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.4% has been applied to his level change. Given Phil Regan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is +1.5% and for Phil Regan is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 86%, Phil Regan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 82%, Phil Regan: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 6,679, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Phil Regan: 4,914, level confidence: 85%. Notes
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