|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 15 Jan 2020)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Sam Price (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-1,11-1,11-6:10-12,11-4,11-2,11-7:11-3,11-7,11-5:9-11,10-12,13-11,6-11:11-8,4-11,8-11,11-7,11-6. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 11,903, level confidence: 44%. Starting level for Sam Price: 5,215, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 128% better than Sam Price. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 313% better than Sam Price in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 16,002 and Sam Price at a level of 3,879. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +22% and Sam Price changes to -10.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +5.6% and for Sam Price becomes -3.8%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Given Sam Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +3.4% and for Sam Price is -2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 66%, Sam Price: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 49%, Sam Price: 68%. A final adjustment of +2.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 12,988, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Sam Price: 5,090, level confidence: 68%. Notes
|