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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 26 Feb 2020)Match played between Paul Cresswell (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Paul Cresswell. Result: 12-10,9-11,11-6,3-11,11-6. Starting level for Paul Cresswell: 8,659, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Radley: 10,771, level confidence: 53%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Paul Cresswell. Paul Cresswell won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cresswell played 9% better than Mark Radley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cresswell actually played at a level of 10,066 and Mark Radley at a level of 9,266. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell changes to +10% and Mark Radley changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell becomes +3.3% and for Mark Radley becomes -4.2%. Given Paul Cresswell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Paul Cresswell is +2.2% and for Mark Radley is -2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cresswell: 87%, Mark Radley: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cresswell: 75%, Mark Radley: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Cresswell: 8,834, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Mark Radley: 10,485, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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