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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 26 Feb 2020)Match played between Luke Howells (home) and Conall Platts (away).Match won by Luke Howells. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-2. Starting level for Luke Howells: 5,858, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Conall Platts: 1,986, level confidence: 69%. Luke Howells to win as he is currently playing 195% better than Conall Platts. Luke Howells won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Howells played 83% better than Conall Platts in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Luke Howells was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,173 and 5,858 without affecting his level. In this case, Luke Howells played at level 4,030 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Luke Howells would normally have been playing at level 4,461 (based on typical behaviour), Conall Platts played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Howells changes to 0% and Conall Platts changes to +6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Howells becomes 0% and for Conall Platts becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Luke Howells is 0% and for Conall Platts is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Howells: 83%, Conall Platts: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Howells: 65%, Conall Platts: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Howells: 5,849, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Conall Platts: 2,035, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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