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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Shepton Mallet A (Thu 05 Mar 2020)Match played between Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (home) and David Cox (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-6,11-7. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 8,012, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for David Cox: 4,671, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 72% better than David Cox. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 25% better than David Cox in this match. As Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson has played below his allowed range at 6,243, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson would normally have been playing at level 7,381 (based on typical behaviour), David Cox played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 9.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to -5.1% and David Cox changes to +6.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes -2.1% and for David Cox becomes +2.9%. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is -1.4% and for David Cox is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 78%, David Cox: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 66%, David Cox: 77%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 8,012, level confidence: 66%. Final level for David Cox: 4,737, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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