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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Lansdown 1 (Thu 12 Mar 2020)Match played between Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman (home) and Brendan Pegrum (away).Match won by Brendan Pegrum. Result: 5-11,3-11,7-11. Starting level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 715, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Brendan Pegrum: 2,799, level confidence: 64%. Brendan Pegrum to win as he is currently playing 291% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman. Brendan Pegrum won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brendan Pegrum played 120% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Brendan Pegrum was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,114 and 2,799 without affecting his level. In this case, Brendan Pegrum played at level 1,710 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Brendan Pegrum would normally have been playing at level 1,858 (based on typical behaviour), Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brendan Pegrum changes to 0% and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brendan Pegrum becomes 0% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Brendan Pegrum is 0% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is +2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brendan Pegrum: 80%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brendan Pegrum: 60%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 733, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Brendan Pegrum: 2,795, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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