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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Shepton Mallet A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 05 Feb 2020)Match played between Isaac Milford (home) and Paul Cresswell (away).Match won by Paul Cresswell. Result: 1-11,11-7,1-11,11-13. Starting level for Isaac Milford: 5,957, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Paul Cresswell: 8,390, level confidence: 62%. Paul Cresswell to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Isaac Milford. Paul Cresswell won 75% of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cresswell played 42% better than Isaac Milford in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cresswell actually played at a level of 8,410 and Isaac Milford at a level of 5,943. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell changes to 0% and Isaac Milford changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell becomes +0.1% and for Isaac Milford becomes 0%. Given Paul Cresswell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Given Isaac Milford's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Paul Cresswell is 0% and for Isaac Milford is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cresswell: 79%, Isaac Milford: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cresswell: 78%, Isaac Milford: 84%. A final adjustment of +2.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Isaac Milford: 5,948, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Paul Cresswell: 8,803, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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