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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Shepton Mallet A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 05 Feb 2020)Match played between Adam Sindall-White (home) and Luke Howells (away).Match won by Luke Howells. Result: 13-11,11-7,5-11,4-11,3-11. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 4,502, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Luke Howells: 6,032, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Luke Howells to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Adam Sindall-White. Luke Howells won 60% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Howells played 18% better than Adam Sindall-White in this match. As Luke Howells has played below his allowed range at 5,485, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Luke Howells would normally have been playing at level 5,867 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Sindall-White played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 4.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Howells changes to -2.9% and Adam Sindall-White changes to +4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Howells becomes -1.6% and for Adam Sindall-White becomes +2.2%. Given Luke Howells's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Luke Howells is -1.1% and for Adam Sindall-White is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Howells: 88%, Adam Sindall-White: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Howells: 83%, Adam Sindall-White: 84%. A final adjustment of -2.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 4,379, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Luke Howells: 5,893, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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