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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 11 Mar 2020)Match played between Paul Cresswell (home) and Sam Price (away).Match won by Paul Cresswell. Result: 12-10,9-11,11-1,11-3:12-10,11-3,11-0:11-6,11-7,11-9:12-10,11-7,9-11,11-7:12-10,11-6,11-4. Starting level for Paul Cresswell: 8,834, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Sam Price: 5,620, level confidence: 44%. Paul Cresswell to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Sam Price. Paul Cresswell won 75% of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 72% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cresswell played 41% better than Sam Price in this match. In this case, Paul Cresswell played at level 8,106 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Cresswell would normally have been playing at level 8,320 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Price played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell changes to 0% and Sam Price changes to +2.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell becomes 0% and for Sam Price becomes +1.2%. Given Sam Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Paul Cresswell is 0% and for Sam Price is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cresswell: 84%, Sam Price: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cresswell: 79%, Sam Price: 62%. A final adjustment of -4.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Cresswell: 8,222, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Sam Price: 5,612, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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