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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: David Lloyd A v Redland B (Wed 12 Feb 2020)Match played between Grant Jones (home) and Darran Mabbs (away).Match won by Grant Jones. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-4. Starting level for Grant Jones: 2,413, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Darran Mabbs: 3,404, level confidence: 46%. Darran Mabbs to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Grant Jones. Grant Jones won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Grant Jones played 175% better than Darran Mabbs in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Grant Jones actually played at a level of 4,753 and Darran Mabbs at a level of 1,728. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 97% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 77% and 77% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Grant Jones changes to +63% and Darran Mabbs changes to -77%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Grant Jones becomes +20.5% and for Darran Mabbs becomes -22%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Grant Jones is +15% and for Darran Mabbs is -15%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Grant Jones is limited to +10% and Darran Mabbs is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Grant Jones: 75%, Darran Mabbs: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Grant Jones: 38%, Darran Mabbs: 34%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Grant Jones: 2,650, level confidence: 38%. Final level for Darran Mabbs: 3,154, level confidence: 34%. Notes
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