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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Workout Harbourside A v David Lloyd A (Thu 05 Mar 2020)Match played between Helen Browning (home) and Tina Anderson (away).Match won by Helen Browning. Result: 15-12,15-8,15-3. Starting level for Helen Browning: 782, level confidence: 43%. Starting level for Tina Anderson: 246, level confidence: 62%. Helen Browning to win as she is currently playing 218% better than Tina Anderson. Helen Browning won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Helen Browning played 96% better than Tina Anderson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Helen Browning was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 393 and 782 without affecting her level. In this case, Helen Browning played at level 527 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Helen Browning would normally have been playing at level 576 (based on typical behaviour), Tina Anderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Helen Browning changes to 0% and Tina Anderson changes to +3.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Helen Browning becomes 0% and for Tina Anderson becomes +3.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Helen Browning is 0% and for Tina Anderson is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Helen Browning: 66%, Tina Anderson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Helen Browning: 52%, Tina Anderson: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Helen Browning: 781, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Tina Anderson: 251, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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