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Login: | Explaining level changesEd 'Fury' Ames v Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet (Thu 29 Oct 2020)Match won by Ed 'Fury' Ames. Result: 9-15,15-9,15-11,15-10.Starting level for Ed 'Fury' Ames: 1,156, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 1,719, level confidence: 59%. Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Ed 'Fury' Ames. Ed 'Fury' Ames won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ed 'Fury' Ames played 23% better than Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ed 'Fury' Ames actually played at a level of 1,566 and Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet at a level of 1,269. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ed 'Fury' Ames changes to +27% and Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ed 'Fury' Ames becomes +13.5% and for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Autumn Boxes' so the adjustment for Ed 'Fury' Ames is +6.8% and for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ed 'Fury' Ames: 78%, Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ed 'Fury' Ames: 58%, Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 57%. A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ed 'Fury' Ames: 1,272, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 1,637, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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