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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Westbury David Lloyd A v Redland Summer C (Wed 28 Jul 2021)Match played between Tejas Ramanan (home) and Giles Sharley (away).Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 4-11,6-11,5-11. Starting level for Tejas Ramanan: 883, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 2,768, level confidence: 41%. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 213% better than Tejas Ramanan. Giles Sharley won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 120% better than Tejas Ramanan in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Giles Sharley was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,370 and 2,768 without affecting his level. In this case, Giles Sharley played at level 1,996 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Giles Sharley would normally have been playing at level 2,052 (based on typical behaviour), Tejas Ramanan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to 0% and Tejas Ramanan changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes 0% and for Tejas Ramanan becomes +1.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is 0% and for Tejas Ramanan is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 64%, Tejas Ramanan: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 53%, Tejas Ramanan: 26%. A final adjustment of +6.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tejas Ramanan: 1,008, level confidence: 26%. Final level for Giles Sharley: 2,768, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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