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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Westbury David Lloyd A v Redland Summer C (Wed 28 Jul 2021)Match played between Ben 'Taggart' Kerr (home) and Adam Chambers (away).Match won by Adam Chambers. Result: 5-11,7-11,4-11. Starting level for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 1,112, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Adam Chambers: 1,545, level confidence: 63%. Adam Chambers to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Ben 'Taggart' Kerr. Adam Chambers won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Chambers played 106% better than Ben 'Taggart' Kerr in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Chambers actually played at a level of 1,882 and Ben 'Taggart' Kerr at a level of 913. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Chambers changes to +2.9% and Ben 'Taggart' Kerr changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Chambers becomes +2.4% and for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr becomes -9.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for Adam Chambers is +1.6% and for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben 'Taggart' Kerr is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Chambers: 79%, Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Chambers: 65%, Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 26%. Final level for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 1,059, level confidence: 26%. Final level for Adam Chambers: 1,569, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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