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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: BAWA A v Redland Summer A (Wed 11 Aug 2021)Match played between Lyndon Hore (home) and Chris De Coninck (away).Match won by Chris De Coninck. Result: 2-11,2-11,8-11. Starting level for Lyndon Hore: 3,034, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Chris De Coninck: 4,135, level confidence: 23%. Chris De Coninck to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Lyndon Hore. Chris De Coninck won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris De Coninck played 175% better than Lyndon Hore in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris De Coninck actually played at a level of 5,874 and Lyndon Hore at a level of 2,136. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris De Coninck changes to +15% and Lyndon Hore changes to -35%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris De Coninck becomes +5.4% and for Lyndon Hore becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for Chris De Coninck is +3.5% and for Lyndon Hore is -7.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyndon Hore is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris De Coninck: 48%, Lyndon Hore: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris De Coninck: 34%, Lyndon Hore: 22%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lyndon Hore: 2,897, level confidence: 22%. Final level for Chris De Coninck: 4,292, level confidence: 34%. Notes
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