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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v Redland Summer B (Wed 15 Sep 2021)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-3:11-7,11-4,11-5:6-11,11-8,8-11,8-11:11-8,11-7,7-11,14-12. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,895, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 4,850, level confidence: 64%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Ben Macdonald. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 106% better than Ben Macdonald in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 9,949 and Ben Macdonald at a level of 4,824. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +0.3% and Ben Macdonald changes to -0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +0.2% and for Ben Macdonald becomes 0%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is 0% and for Ben Macdonald is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 87%, Ben Macdonald: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 86%, Ben Macdonald: 79%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,928, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 4,855, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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