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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 11 Aug 2021)Match played between Benjamin Adams (home) and John Welton (away).Match won by John Welton. Result: 9-11,4-11,6-11:11-7,8-11,3-11,5-11:4-11,7-11,4-11:11-4,8-11,11-2,11-7. Starting level for Benjamin Adams: 6,778, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for John Welton: 9,159, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. John Welton to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Benjamin Adams. John Welton won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Welton played 74% better than Benjamin Adams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Welton actually played at a level of 10,384 and Benjamin Adams at a level of 5,979. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Welton changes to +11% and Benjamin Adams changes to -11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Welton becomes +3.6% and for Benjamin Adams becomes -3.9%. Given John Welton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Given Benjamin Adams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for John Welton is +1.8% and for Benjamin Adams is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Welton: 84%, Benjamin Adams: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Welton: 74%, Benjamin Adams: 74%. A final adjustment of -1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Benjamin Adams: 6,402, level confidence: 74%. Final level for John Welton: 9,302, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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