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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 11 Aug 2021)Match played between Duncan Higgins (home) and Charlie Galton (away).Match won by Charlie Galton. Result: 4-11,7-11,4-11. Starting level for Duncan Higgins: 4,276, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Charlie Galton: 3,433, level confidence: 51%. Duncan Higgins to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Charlie Galton. Charlie Galton won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Galton played 120% better than Duncan Higgins in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Galton actually played at a level of 5,683 and Duncan Higgins at a level of 2,583. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 66% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 57% and 57% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Galton changes to +57% and Duncan Higgins changes to -42%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Galton becomes +17% and for Duncan Higgins becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for Charlie Galton is +11% and for Duncan Higgins is -7.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Charlie Galton is limited to +10% and Duncan Higgins is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Galton: 71%, Duncan Higgins: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Galton: 43%, Duncan Higgins: 48%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Duncan Higgins: 4,129, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Charlie Galton: 3,786, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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