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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Redland Summer A (Wed 14 Jul 2021)Match played between John Welton (home) and Tom Gogarty (away).Match won by John Welton. Result: 14-12,11-9,11-6. Starting level for John Welton: 9,123, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Tom Gogarty: 6,562, level confidence: 10%. John Welton to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Tom Gogarty. John Welton won all of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Welton played 40% better than Tom Gogarty in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Welton actually played at a level of 9,171 and Tom Gogarty at a level of 6,528. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Welton changes to +0.4% and Tom Gogarty changes to -0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Welton becomes +0.2% and for Tom Gogarty becomes 0%. Given John Welton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Given Tom Gogarty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for John Welton is 0% and for Tom Gogarty is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Welton: 32%, Tom Gogarty: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Welton: 32%, Tom Gogarty: 32%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for John Welton: 9,136, level confidence: 32%. Final level for Tom Gogarty: 6,554, level confidence: 32%. Notes
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