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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 18 Aug 2021)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Adrian Heath (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-3,11-8,11-7:11-7,11-7,11-8:11-8,11-7,5-11,11-6:9-11,11-5,9-11,9-11. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,870, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Adrian Heath: 4,511, level confidence: 45%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 119% better than Adrian Heath. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 83% better than Adrian Heath in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jack Alcock was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,774 and 9,870 without affecting his level. In this case, Jack Alcock played at level 8,339 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jack Alcock would normally have been playing at level 8,409 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian Heath played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to 0% and Adrian Heath changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes 0% and for Adrian Heath becomes +0.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer (Placeholder) 2021' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is 0% and for Adrian Heath is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 92%, Adrian Heath: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 85%, Adrian Heath: 61%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,895, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Adrian Heath: 4,532, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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