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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Dodos v Thornbury A (Wed 10 Nov 2021)Match played between David Evans (home) and Rob Livingstone (away).Match won by David Evans. Result: 15-8,15-10,15-6. Starting level for David Evans: 2,089, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Rob Livingstone: 2,617, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Rob Livingstone to win as he is currently playing 25% better than David Evans. David Evans won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Evans played 88% better than Rob Livingstone in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Evans actually played at a level of 3,202 and Rob Livingstone at a level of 1,708. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 46% and 46% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Evans changes to +46% and Rob Livingstone changes to -40%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Evans becomes +16.8% and for Rob Livingstone becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for David Evans is +13% and for Rob Livingstone is -10.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Evans is limited to +10% and Rob Livingstone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Evans: 82%, Rob Livingstone: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Evans: 54%, Rob Livingstone: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Evans: 2,294, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Rob Livingstone: 2,491, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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