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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano A v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 13 Oct 2021)Match played between Edwin Swidenbank (home) and Troy Vinson (away).Match won by Edwin Swidenbank. Result: 15-12,15-4,15-7. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 2,109, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Troy Vinson: 818, level confidence: 66%. Edwin Swidenbank to win as he is currently playing 158% better than Troy Vinson. Edwin Swidenbank won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edwin Swidenbank played 96% better than Troy Vinson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Edwin Swidenbank was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,292 and 2,109 without affecting his level. In this case, Edwin Swidenbank played at level 1,648 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Edwin Swidenbank would normally have been playing at level 1,696 (based on typical behaviour), Troy Vinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank changes to 0% and Troy Vinson changes to +1.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank becomes 0% and for Troy Vinson becomes +1.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank is 0% and for Troy Vinson is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edwin Swidenbank: 71%, Troy Vinson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edwin Swidenbank: 62%, Troy Vinson: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 2,107, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Troy Vinson: 826, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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