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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bath 1 (Tue 07 Dec 2021)Match played between Wai Au Yeong (home) and Arnaud Masset (away).Match won by Arnaud Masset. Result: 11-4,8-11,8-11,8-11. Starting level for Wai Au Yeong: 5,143, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Arnaud Masset: 7,002, level confidence: 69%. Arnaud Masset to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Wai Au Yeong. Arnaud Masset won 75% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnaud Masset played 19% better than Wai Au Yeong in this match. As Arnaud Masset has played below his allowed range at 6,316, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Arnaud Masset would normally have been playing at level 6,792 (based on typical behaviour), Wai Au Yeong played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 4.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset changes to -2.3% and Wai Au Yeong changes to +4.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset becomes -1.2% and for Wai Au Yeong becomes +2.2%. Given Arnaud Masset's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.8% has been applied to his level change. Given Wai Au Yeong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.6% has been applied to her level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Arnaud Masset is -0.9% and for Wai Au Yeong is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnaud Masset: 83%, Wai Au Yeong: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnaud Masset: 78%, Wai Au Yeong: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Wai Au Yeong: 5,221, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Arnaud Masset: 6,933, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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