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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Thu 04 Nov 2021)Match played between Antoine Riehl (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 8-11,4-11,15-13,14-12,5-11:8-11,10-12,6-11:6-11,6-11,8-11:10-12,5-11,8-11:11-8,11-6,11-4. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 7,303, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,596, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Antoine Riehl. Jack Alcock won 60% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 14% better than Antoine Riehl in this match. As Jack Alcock has played below his allowed range at 8,954, his level reduction is 7.5% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Alcock would normally have been playing at level 10,154 (based on typical behaviour), Antoine Riehl played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 8.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to -3.9% and Antoine Riehl changes to +8.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes -1.7% and for Antoine Riehl becomes +3%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is -1.1% and for Antoine Riehl is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 90%, Antoine Riehl: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 79%, Antoine Riehl: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 7,445, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,454, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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