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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Thu 04 Nov 2021)Match played between Raunak Singh (home) and Stephen Thompson (away).Match won by Stephen Thompson. Result: 8-11,10-12,6-11. Starting level for Raunak Singh: 5,992, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Stephen Thompson: 6,813, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Stephen Thompson to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Raunak Singh. Stephen Thompson won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Thompson played 46% better than Raunak Singh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Thompson actually played at a level of 7,722 and Raunak Singh at a level of 5,287. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson changes to +9.8% and Raunak Singh changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson becomes +3.4% and for Raunak Singh becomes -4.2%. Given Stephen Thompson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Raunak Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Stephen Thompson is +2.4% and for Raunak Singh is -3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Thompson: 85%, Raunak Singh: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Thompson: 75%, Raunak Singh: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Raunak Singh: 5,807, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Stephen Thompson: 6,949, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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