|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Redland Z (Thu 04 Nov 2021)Match played between Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-7:11-6,12-10,9-11,11-4:3-11,11-9,12-10,5-11,12-10:11-7,11-5,7-11,8-11,11-5:13-11,11-7,11-3. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 10,172, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 4,987, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Ben Macdonald. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 74% better than Ben Macdonald in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,452 and 10,172 without affecting his level. In this case, Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played at level 8,760 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson would normally have been playing at level 8,858 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Macdonald played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to 0% and Ben Macdonald changes to +0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes 0% and for Ben Macdonald becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is 0% and for Ben Macdonald is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 80%, Ben Macdonald: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 74%, Ben Macdonald: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 10,157, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 4,994, level confidence: 80%. Notes
|