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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 10 Nov 2021)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Antoine Riehl (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-2:11-6,10-12,11-13,8-11:9-11,15-13,9-11,8-11:1-11,4-11,7-11:7-11,4-11,4-11. Starting level for Mark Radley: 9,611, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 7,445, level confidence: 68%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Antoine Riehl. Mark Radley won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 230% better than Antoine Riehl in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 15,366 and Antoine Riehl at a level of 4,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 60% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 51% and 51% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +51% and Antoine Riehl changes to -45%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +11.8% and for Antoine Riehl becomes -11%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +7.6% and for Antoine Riehl is -7.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Antoine Riehl is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 79%, Antoine Riehl: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 49%, Antoine Riehl: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 10,329, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 7,080, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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