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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 10 Nov 2021)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Raunak Singh (away).Match won by Raunak Singh. Result: 11-6,10-12,11-13,8-11. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 7,548, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Raunak Singh: 5,807, level confidence: 60%. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Raunak Singh. Raunak Singh won 75% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raunak Singh played 18% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raunak Singh actually played at a level of 7,204 and Andy Ewings at a level of 6,084. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raunak Singh changes to +21% and Andy Ewings changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raunak Singh becomes +6.4% and for Andy Ewings becomes -4.8%. Given Raunak Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Raunak Singh is +4.6% and for Andy Ewings is -3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raunak Singh: 77%, Andy Ewings: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raunak Singh: 62%, Andy Ewings: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 7,299, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Raunak Singh: 6,067, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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