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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 07 Oct 2021)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Mark 'On Your' Toseland (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-1. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,202, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 4,323, level confidence: 10%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 136% better than Mark 'On Your' Toseland. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 267% better than Mark 'On Your' Toseland in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 12,717 and Mark 'On Your' Toseland at a level of 3,468. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +2.4% and Mark 'On Your' Toseland changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +1.2% and for Mark 'On Your' Toseland becomes -5.5%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +0.8% and for Mark 'On Your' Toseland is -4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 80%, Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 65%, Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 25%. A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,397, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 4,187, level confidence: 25%. Notes
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