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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 07 Oct 2021)Match played between Sam Barham (home) and Fin 'Huggies' McManus (away).Match won by Sam Barham. Result: 11-2,11-2,10-12,11-4. Starting level for Sam Barham: 5,716, level confidence: 34%. Starting level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 4,336, level confidence: 56%. Sam Barham to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Fin 'Huggies' McManus. Sam Barham won 75% of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 115% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Barham played 55% better than Fin 'Huggies' McManus in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Barham actually played at a level of 6,192 and Fin 'Huggies' McManus at a level of 4,003. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 7.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Barham changes to +7.2% and Fin 'Huggies' McManus changes to -4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Barham becomes +2.9% and for Fin 'Huggies' McManus becomes -2.2%. Given Sam Barham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Sam Barham is +2.1% and for Fin 'Huggies' McManus is -1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Barham: 59%, Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Barham: 54%, Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Barham: 5,831, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 4,262, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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