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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v University of Bath 1 (Thu 14 Oct 2021)Match played between Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (home) and Raunak Singh (away).Match won by Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-5. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 12,071, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Raunak Singh: 6,186, level confidence: 29%. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Raunak Singh. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played 136% better than Raunak Singh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe actually played at a level of 13,267 and Raunak Singh at a level of 5,628. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to +7% and Raunak Singh changes to -2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes +2.4% and for Raunak Singh becomes -1.3%. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Given Raunak Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is +1.4% and for Raunak Singh is -0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 32%, Raunak Singh: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 29%, Raunak Singh: 49%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 12,227, level confidence: 29%. Final level for Raunak Singh: 6,120, level confidence: 49%. Notes
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