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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 17 Nov 2021)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Jared London (away).Match won by Jared London. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-9,11-13,7-11:11-8,11-7,5-11,12-10:11-3,12-10,11-7:8-11,6-11,13-11,11-4,11-5:7-11,11-8,11-7,7-11,6-11. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,454, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Jared London: 12,027, level confidence: 65%. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Jack Alcock. Jared London won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jared London played 9% better than Jack Alcock in this match. As Jared London has played below his allowed range at 11,652, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Jared London would normally have been playing at level 11,972 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Alcock played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jared London changes to -2% and Jack Alcock changes to +2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jared London becomes -1% and for Jack Alcock becomes +1%. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jared London is -0.6% and for Jack Alcock is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jared London: 80%, Jack Alcock: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jared London: 78%, Jack Alcock: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,502, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Jared London: 11,939, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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