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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Z v University of Bath 1 (Thu 21 Oct 2021)Match played between Barney Elworthy (home) and Raunak Singh (away).Match won by Barney Elworthy. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-7. Starting level for Barney Elworthy: 7,032, level confidence: 25%. Starting level for Raunak Singh: 6,120, level confidence: 47%. Barney Elworthy to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Raunak Singh. Barney Elworthy won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barney Elworthy played 106% better than Raunak Singh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barney Elworthy actually played at a level of 9,421 and Raunak Singh at a level of 4,568. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy changes to +31% and Raunak Singh changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy becomes +8.5% and for Raunak Singh becomes -4.7%. Given Barney Elworthy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change. Given Raunak Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.6% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Barney Elworthy is +5.9% and for Raunak Singh is -3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barney Elworthy: 50%, Raunak Singh: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barney Elworthy: 37%, Raunak Singh: 51%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barney Elworthy: 7,443, level confidence: 37%. Final level for Raunak Singh: 5,992, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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