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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Z v University of Bath 1 (Thu 21 Oct 2021)Match played between Phil Reddaway (home) and Josh 'The Captain' Ford (away).Match won by Josh 'The Captain' Ford. Result: 5-11,6-11,8-11. Starting level for Phil Reddaway: 3,581, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Josh 'The Captain' Ford: 5,098, level confidence: 26%. Josh 'The Captain' Ford to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Phil Reddaway. Josh 'The Captain' Ford won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh 'The Captain' Ford played 74% better than Phil Reddaway in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh 'The Captain' Ford actually played at a level of 5,631 and Phil Reddaway at a level of 3,242. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.7% and 8.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh 'The Captain' Ford changes to +8.7% and Phil Reddaway changes to -2.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh 'The Captain' Ford becomes +3.4% and for Phil Reddaway becomes -1.9%. Given Josh 'The Captain' Ford's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Josh 'The Captain' Ford is +2.5% and for Phil Reddaway is -1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh 'The Captain' Ford: 51%, Phil Reddaway: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh 'The Captain' Ford: 46%, Phil Reddaway: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Phil Reddaway: 3,526, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Josh 'The Captain' Ford: 5,218, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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