|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Redland Z (Wed 24 Nov 2021)Match played between Arnaud Masset (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Ben Macdonald. Result: 11-5,6-11,9-11,11-1,8-11. Starting level for Arnaud Masset: 7,381, level confidence: 44%. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 5,112, level confidence: 68%. Arnaud Masset to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Ben Macdonald. Ben Macdonald won 60% of the games and 46% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 15% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Macdonald played 4% better than Arnaud Masset in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Macdonald actually played at a level of 6,269 and Arnaud Masset at a level of 6,019. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Macdonald changes to +12% and Arnaud Masset changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Macdonald becomes +4.3% and for Arnaud Masset becomes -5.5%. Given Ben Macdonald's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change. Given Arnaud Masset's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Ben Macdonald is +3.2% and for Arnaud Masset is -3.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Macdonald: 83%, Arnaud Masset: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Macdonald: 67%, Arnaud Masset: 54%. A final adjustment of -1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Arnaud Masset: 6,883, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 5,284, level confidence: 67%. Notes
|