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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 20 Oct 2021)Match played between James Peach (home) and Luke Bishop (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 14-12,11-5,11-13,11-7:11-8,10-12,11-7,11-5:9-11,11-9,13-15,13-11,9-11:9-11,5-11,2-11:11-9,13-11,11-8. Starting level for James Peach: 20,827, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 11,755, level confidence: 10%. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Luke Bishop. James Peach won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 26% better than Luke Bishop in this match. As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 15,829, his level reduction is 7.1% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 19,010 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Bishop played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 9.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to -0.8% and Luke Bishop changes to +9.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -0.3% and for Luke Bishop becomes +3%. Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Luke Bishop is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 81%, Luke Bishop: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 68%, Luke Bishop: 27%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Peach: 20,719, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Luke Bishop: 12,209, level confidence: 27%. Notes
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