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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 20 Oct 2021)Match played between Sam Barham (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 9-11,5-11,2-11. Starting level for Sam Barham: 5,831, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 7,363, level confidence: 58%. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Sam Barham. Andy Ewings won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 106% better than Sam Barham in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Ewings actually played at a level of 9,410 and Sam Barham at a level of 4,562. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to +21% and Sam Barham changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes +6.2% and for Sam Barham becomes -7.3%. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.1% has been applied to his level change. Given Sam Barham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is +4.2% and for Sam Barham is -5.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 76%, Sam Barham: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 60%, Sam Barham: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Barham: 5,545, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 7,663, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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