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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Z v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 29 Sep 2021)Match played between Jared London (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 4-11,11-9,4-11,3-11:8-11,11-3,10-12,5-11:11-5,3-11,12-10,8-11,11-8:9-11,11-7,9-11,11-8,9-11:7-11,5-11,4-11. Starting level for Jared London: 12,073, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,928, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Jack Alcock. Jack Alcock won 75% of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 91% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 47% better than Jared London in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 13,263 and Jared London at a level of 9,038. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +3.7% and Jared London changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +1.7% and for Jared London becomes -7.3%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +1.1% and for Jared London is -4.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 90%, Jared London: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 68%, Jared London: 24%. A final adjustment of +1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jared London: 11,765, level confidence: 24%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,202, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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