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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 08 Dec 2021)Match played between Andy Marsh (home) and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (away).Match won by Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Result: 4-11,4-11,8-11. Starting level for Andy Marsh: 7,646, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 11,751, level confidence: 69%. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Andy Marsh. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played 106% better than Andy Marsh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe actually played at a level of 13,613 and Andy Marsh at a level of 6,600. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to +13% and Andy Marsh changes to -11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes +3.6% and for Andy Marsh becomes -3.7%. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Marsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is +2.2% and for Andy Marsh is -2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 83%, Andy Marsh: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 72%, Andy Marsh: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Marsh: 7,449, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 11,997, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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