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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Workout Harbourside 1 (Thu 16 Dec 2021)Match played between Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 4-11,11-9,11-5,11-5:11-1,7-11,11-13,11-9,11-2:5-11,8-11,9-11:7-11,9-11,11-5,11-6,5-11:11-1,12-10,12-10. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,132, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,672, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Jack Alcock. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 24% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson actually played at a level of 12,694 and Jack Alcock at a level of 10,200. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to +4.3% and Jack Alcock changes to -4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes +1.7% and for Jack Alcock becomes -1.8%. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is +1.1% and for Jack Alcock is -1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 82%, Jack Alcock: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 79%, Jack Alcock: 81%. A final adjustment of +5.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 13,561, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,661, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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