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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Lansdown 1 (Tue 26 Oct 2021)Match played between Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (home) and Andy Marsh (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 11-2,12-10,8-11,11-5:11-9,11-4,11-5:8-11,9-11,7-11:9-11,3-11,8-11:6-11,3-11,11-7,13-11,11-9. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 9,221, level confidence: 52%. Starting level for Andy Marsh: 8,133, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Andy Marsh. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 33% better than Andy Marsh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson actually played at a level of 9,997 and Andy Marsh at a level of 7,502. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to +7.9% and Andy Marsh changes to -5.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes +2.7% and for Andy Marsh becomes -2.1%. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Marsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is +1.8% and for Andy Marsh is -1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 72%, Andy Marsh: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 67%, Andy Marsh: 81%. A final adjustment of +4.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 10,172, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Andy Marsh: 8,066, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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