|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Lansdown 1 (Tue 26 Oct 2021)Match played between Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Result: 11-9,11-4,11-5. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 11,874, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 7,663, level confidence: 58%. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Andy Ewings. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played 83% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe actually played at a level of 12,916 and Andy Ewings at a level of 7,045. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to +7% and Andy Ewings changes to -6.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes +2.4% and for Andy Ewings becomes -2.6%. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is +1.5% and for Andy Ewings is -1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 75%, Andy Ewings: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 69%, Andy Ewings: 70%. A final adjustment of -1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 11,780, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 7,505, level confidence: 70%. Notes
|