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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Shepton Mallet A v Workout Harbourside (Wed 17 Nov 2021)Match played between Sam Price (home) and Adrian Heath (away).Match won by Sam Price. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-2. Starting level for Sam Price: 6,889, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Adrian Heath: 5,149, level confidence: 67%. Sam Price to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Adrian Heath. Sam Price won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Price played 120% better than Adrian Heath in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Price actually played at a level of 8,834 and Adrian Heath at a level of 4,015. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Price changes to +23% and Adrian Heath changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Price becomes +6.6% and for Adrian Heath becomes -7.4%. Given Sam Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.4% has been applied to his level change. Given Adrian Heath's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Sam Price is +4.6% and for Adrian Heath is -5.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Price: 84%, Adrian Heath: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Price: 65%, Adrian Heath: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Price: 7,180, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Adrian Heath: 4,896, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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