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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Weston String Strokers v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 04 Nov 2021)Match played between Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison (home) and Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram (away).Match won by Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram. Result: 7-11,9-11,11-3,9-11. Starting level for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 2,057, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 2,726, level confidence: 68%. Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison. Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram won 75% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram played 17% better than Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison in this match. As Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram has played below his allowed range at 2,485, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram would normally have been playing at level 2,657 (based on typical behaviour), Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 4.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram changes to -0.4% and Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison changes to +4.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram becomes -0.3% and for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram is 0% and for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 82%, Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 77%, Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 30%. A final adjustment of -11% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 1,821, level confidence: 30%. Final level for Max 'The Rattlesnake' Cockram: 2,546, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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