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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v University of Bath 2 (Tue 23 Nov 2021)Match played between Will 'Cheeks' Gray (home) and Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray (away).Match won by Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray. Result: 8-11,9-11,9-11. Starting level for Will 'Cheeks' Gray: 2,070, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 3,360, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Will 'Cheeks' Gray. Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray played 36% better than Will 'Cheeks' Gray in this match. As Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray has played below his allowed range at 2,852, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray would normally have been playing at level 3,140 (based on typical behaviour), Will 'Cheeks' Gray played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray changes to -0.9% and Will 'Cheeks' Gray changes to +4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray becomes -0.6% and for Will 'Cheeks' Gray becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray is -0.5% and for Will 'Cheeks' Gray is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 87%, Will 'Cheeks' Gray: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 79%, Will 'Cheeks' Gray: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Will 'Cheeks' Gray: 2,110, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 3,340, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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