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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Beasts v Redland Winter Pumas (Thu 11 Nov 2021)Match played between Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund (home) and Claire Packwood (away).Match won by Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund. Result: 15-8,15-7,13-15,15-2. Starting level for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 412, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Claire Packwood: 392, level confidence: 52%. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund to win as she is currently playing 5% better than Claire Packwood. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund won 75% of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 81% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund played 44% better than Claire Packwood in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund actually played at a level of 482 and Claire Packwood at a level of 335. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund changes to +16% and Claire Packwood changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund becomes +9.5% and for Claire Packwood becomes -8.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Autumn 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund is +7.1% and for Claire Packwood is -6.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Claire Packwood is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 69%, Claire Packwood: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 59%, Claire Packwood: 62%. A final adjustment of -1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rachel ‘Beast’ Roger-Lund: 425, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Claire Packwood: 373, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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