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Login: | Explaining level changesSteve 'Hairy Days' Drew v Ian Hughes (Tue 21 Sep 2021)Match won by Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew. Result: 15-6,15-5,17-15.Starting level for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 823, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Ian Hughes: 692, level confidence: 62%. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Ian Hughes. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 81% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew played 81% better than Ian Hughes in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew actually played at a level of 1,015 and Ian Hughes at a level of 561. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew changes to +20% and Ian Hughes changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew becomes +11.3% and for Ian Hughes becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Weston Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew is +5.7% and for Ian Hughes is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Hughes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 80%, Ian Hughes: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 65%, Ian Hughes: 64%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 872, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Ian Hughes: 661, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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